mayo 18, 2024
Titulares

México registró superávit de 6,247 mdd en cuenta corriente

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La mejora en las cuentas externas se explica por un menor déficit de la balanza petrolera; mayor flujo de remesas y un menor déficit de la balanza de ingreso primario.

Si revisamos el comportamiento de las cuentas externas en los últimos 10 trimestres, lo que vemos es volatilidad en el saldo de la cuenta corriente, que nos deja vulnerables a las condiciones de Estados Unidos en particular”.

Luis Pérez Lezama, director de investigación económica en el Thinklab Saver.

La cuenta corriente del segundo trimestre del año registró un superávit de 6,247 millones de dólares, informó Banco de México.

Este saldo positivo contrasta con el déficit de 20,289 millones de dólares del primer trimestre y también incorpora un cambio significativo respecto del déficit de 1,900 millones de dólares registrado en el mismo periodo del año pasado.

La mejora en las cuentas externas respecto del resultado del año pasado, se explica por un menor déficit de la balanza petrolera de 4,278 millones de dólares; mayor flujo de remesas, que en el periodo reportado ascendieron a 16,274 millones de dólares, el más dinámico para un periodo similar desde 1993 y un menor déficit de la balanza de ingreso primario, por 4,150 millones de dólares.

La balanza de ingreso primario representa operaciones provenientes de rentas como cobros y pagos de intereses o remisión de utilidades.

El director de Investigación Económica en el ThinkLab veracruzano Saver, Luis Pérez Lezama resaltó que este superávit resulta “una buena fotografía de un momento en el tiempo” donde la apreciación del peso frente al dólar ha impulsado a las importaciones.

Con él concuerdan analistas de Banorte, que consideran que son factores coyunturales los que determinaron el superávit del segundo trimestre, explican que el desempeño del trimestre estuvo determinado por los precios del petróleo, apreciación del peso, apretamiento adicional de la tasa de interés en otros países y el diferencial de tasas con la Fed.

No se trata de un cambio en la tendencia histórica de nuestra fortaleza comercial, ni nos habla de mayor competitividad, resaltó Pérez Lezama.

Volatilidad cambiaria, riesgo

El experto de Saver subrayó: “si revisamos el comportamiento de las cuentas externas en los últimos 10 trimestres, lo que vemos es volatilidad en el saldo de la cuenta corriente, que nos deja vulnerables a las condiciones de Estados Unidos en particular”.

Visto trimestre a trimestre, desde enero a marzo del 2021, se han intercalado saldos deficitarios y superavitarios en la cuenta corriente de México sin generar una tendencia clara.

Así, encontramos seis saldos deficitarios (durante el primer y tercer trimestre del 2021; en los tres primeros trimestres del 2022 y en el primer cuarto de este año). Y cuatro con saldo superavitario (durante el segundo y cuarto trimestre de 2021, en el último cuarto del 2022 y ahora, en el recién reportado del segundo trimestre del 2023).

La vulnerabilidad a la que se refieren los expertos, radica en los factores que están generando la fortaleza del peso mexicano, que son el flujo de remesas, el deslizamiento del dólar y el apetito del mercado.

Estados Unidos y su recesión rezagada

El economista jefe para México de BBVA, Carlos Serrano, explicó que al retrasarse la recesión de Estados Unidos, se presenta un cambio en el perfil de riesgo para la economía mexicana y para el comportamiento del mercado.

Considera que la probabilidad de que se presente la recesión de Estados Unidos en el último cuarto del año es baja, pero posible. Incluso puede completarse en el primer trimestre del 2024. Si bien descarta un impacto de uno a uno en México, sí anticipa una desaceleración en el flujo de remesas y probablemente de inversión.

El CEO de Valerio Consulting Group, Alejandro Valerio, sostuvo que la fortaleza del peso mexicano sigue alimentándose del flujo de dólares que están ingresando al país.

Dólares vía remesas, IED y turismo

Pero todos estos ingresos están vinculados a la dinámica de Estados Unidos. De manera que la fortaleza del mercado laboral estadounidense, así como el flujo de capitales productivos y la entrada de visitantes extranjeros que mayoritariamente llegan de aquel país, explican la fortaleza del peso.

El riesgo de una desaceleración de Estados Unidos, genera entonces vulnerabilidad para la fortaleza del peso mexicano y por ende, para el saldo de la cuenta corriente.

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